Vodafone Three’s buy out is no surprise, but what happens for MVNOs could be. 

Surprise! Vodafone has announced it will buy out CKH stake in Vodafone Three. As first birthday gifts go, it’s substantial. But was it a surprise? 

In terms of strategy, no. I think we could see it from a mile away. Timing wise, yes. To do it a year on from officially merging two brands was sooner than I, and no doubt markets and analysts, had expected. 

The deal is made up of a £4.3m cancellation of shares and an anticipated £700m cost and CAPEX saving. A decent chunk of change in anyone’s book.

This will be realised by bringing the 100% owned company into the Vodafone Group and leveraging ‘synergies’ and, undoubtedly benefits from technical consolidation.

There are other upsides. The big one being it will neutralise the political concerns about Chinese ownership of critical infrastructure. This is likely to sit well with large enterprise too.

Yesterday, I was asked if I thought this would trigger additional CMA interest.

My gut reaction is that it won’t. There is no real change for consumers, and you could argue that consumers will do better out of the leveraging of intra Vodafone Group benefits. 

Plus, originally there were some substantial competition remedies on the table to ensure consumer and wholesale competition remains at a level comfortable for the CMA.

Which leads me to unpacking another anniversary present / question. One year on, how effective have the remedies been?

Avid readers of my blogs during the run up to, and announcement of the merger will know that remedies were as follows:

1. Investment plan of £11bn to create the largest 5G SA network. This had to be delivered in 8 years with key milestones over that period.
2. Special tariffs that were identified as good value for cash challenged households must be retained for 3 years (2 years left now).
3. A commercial deal was done to allow the merged entity to remain in the site sharing agreement with O2, which involved O2 buying some spectrum from Vodafone Three.
4. A regulator wholesale reference offer was approved, the aim being to maintain competition in wholesale markets. Existing MVNOs also benefitted from some wholesale carve out.

So, has it been successful? At a general level, I would say the UK market is still competitive. The Three brand is still trading and advertising, and as a consumer I haven’t seen a massive price hike, above the usual inflationary increases that the MNOs level (MVNOs not so much). 

I am a Vodafone customer and have been since I started working for them in 2002, and overall I think I have seen improvements in coverage locally through the network sharing and deployment of MOCN.

We haven’t seen the massive MVNO bonanza as I was expecting. But then it’s only been a year.

But, we have seen launches mostly via MVNAs such as eSIMGo, Gigs and Gamma. This includes brands such as Zim, Tekmoni, Rocket mobile, Millwall and other football brands.

In terms of larger multinationals, Gigs has enabled Revolut on Vodafone Three, which is part of a broader mobile strategy across multiple markets. Interestingly, Revolut has used 1Global in other markets so there is healthy competition in Europe.

And we shouldn’t forget the 1Global deal with Lidl which is expected to bring up to 30 MVNOs globally. The UK is likely to be one market that Lidl seeks to build on its increasing grocery market share (8.5%) and a region where it can also integrate its loyalty app. Note that UK deal will be on the BT/EE network signalling that there is still healthy competition between MNOs for wholesale customers too. 

There have also been a large number of announcements of intent to launch, including AO, Monzo, Klarna and Netonmia.

Part of the remedies include the expectation that Vodafone Three will send an annual report to the CMA detailing progress against milestones and demonstrate that remedies are working as expected. We wait to see what comes out. 

Overall, I would say the wholesale market in the UK is still busy. Large brands are interested and 12 months is really early days, albeit we have used a third of the 3-year window for remedies. 

I would say the next 6-12 months are going to be critical and I am forecasting more, larger brands coming to market, which I’ll report on as they happen. 

So, all that remains to be said is ‘Happy birthday Vodafone Three’! Some surprises but largely expected performance.

The Graystone Strategy team is the official training partner at the MVNOs World congress, where we will deliver three masterclasses on all aspects of delivering a successful MVNO. They are free for conference attendees so be sure to secure your slot. And if you need help determining your MVNO strategy in the wake of this announcement, drop me a line. We’re always happy to give some initial advice.