There’s no doubt that MVNOs offer a brilliant way to reach customers, and household names are leading the way. Telecoms has become the ‘go-to’ for any brand that wants to create a new revenue stream or give existing customers a new benefit and reason to spend money with the core business. 

And it’s happening at scale and pace. Lidl plans entry to the market in 30 territories, and the likes of Revolut, Klarna, N26, Media Markt are deliberately placing their bets on this strategy, with good reason too. It’s expected the overall global MVNO market will grow to 155Billion USD in 2031, according to Prescient & Strategic Intelligence.

If you want a slice of this, then I personally think you should look at the UK first and foremost. 

Not just because it’s my home country, but because it’s a market where the levers for success are proven, bringing more certainty to a successful and strategic outcome. 

There are nine attributes that the UK has that few other territories can boast. 

1. Maturity: The UK is the home of the very first MVNO, Virgin Mobile on 11 November 1999. I still remember where I was when it was announced. It was a daring and exciting move. 

27 years on, and the market has matured beyond expectation all those years ago. The diversity and innovation that continue to propel the market are important signals that the MVNX ecosystem in the UK is better developed than most. 

We also have a whole generation of customers who have grown up understanding that there is an alternative to the main MNOs. That is especially important if you’re a brand that couldn’t be further from telecoms, like a sports club with a big fan base, or a charity with a loyal base of donors. 

• Regulation: From a regulatory perspective, the UK is very MVNO friendly. Firstly, new entrants don’t need to apply and pay for an MVNO licence, because there are no licences, which by virtue means there’s no limitation to the number of MVNOs that can be in market 

Secondly, the UK is light-touch on red tape. There are no extreme government checks or legal hoops to jump through. This makes for low-cost entry compared to other places in the world.

Put simply, if you can secure an MVNO wholesale deal and adhere to the regulator’s general conditions of supplying telecoms services, then you can launch an MVNO.

• Frictionless journeys: In many countries, applicants for a telecoms service must undertake Know Your Customer (KYC) identity checks before provisioning a service. Typically, this includes providing your national identity card number and various other forms of ID. This adds complexity to joining journeys for customers. Happily there’s no such ID scheme in the UK so the problem goes away. 

Not only that, but in the UK, ID checks are not mandated, and so a more relaxed approach to regulation makes it much easier to enroll customers. 

MVNOs can choose to do credit checks if they plan to bill in arrears or supply a handset, but in the case of prepaid and subscription services, KYC isn’t a requirement. This reduces friction in joining journeys and makes for a far simpler app, web or retail experience.

• Mandated wholesale access: When the Vodafone and Three networks merged, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) placed binding provisions on the new company to provide regulated wholesale access. This was a response to the reduction in MNOs from four to three, and therefore the reduction in choice MVNOs have for a wholesale partner.

Before the merger, MNOs were free to decide their wholesale pricing and whether to grant access. However, for a period limited to three years, VodafoneThree must give an MVNO sight, under NDA, of a regulated wholesale commercial reference offer (WRO) to anyone applying.

Now that doesn’t mean the market has become a ‘free for all’ where anyone can join, but it has reduced barriers in the short term. And that’s a critical point to grasp for any brand considering entry. By taking advantage of the Wholesale Reference Offer mandate now you could get to market faster. 

• Vibrant MVNx market: Not only are there three MNOs, all of whom have a wholesale strategy in place, but there is also a vibrant local market of MVNAs or Mobile Virtual Network Aggregators, and MVNEs or Mobile Virtual Network Enablers. 

This means there are more hosting options for MVNOs. The aggregators in particular are competing to grow their market share so have some competitive offers to entice new MVNOs. Not only that, the aggregators also have a more ‘productised’ approach to launching MVN:s compared to MNOs, meaning that smaller MVNOs can find a route to market more quickly and easily.

• Consumers are MVNO ready: The near 30-year history of MVNOs means that UK consumers are very happy to consider and buy MVNO products. In fact, many don’t even know they are using an MVNO, such is the brand-pull. Indeed, some of the UK’s biggest mobile brands are pioneers in legitimising MVNOs in place of network operators. 

The British love a plucky underdog too, so MVNOs that are taking on the establishment always get kudos. Look at brands like Honest Mobile as proof of this.

• Market growth: Don’t get me wrong, joining the UK market is not a walk in the park. It’s a constant battle to compete for share and margin. But despite this, MVNOs are still forecast to increase market share, as FDM CCS Insight recently emphasised when it said that the UK market will grow from 23% MVNO penetration to 30% by 2031. Remarkably that’s in a market of over 85m mobile connections.

To illustrate the gulf between MVNOs and MNOs, you just need to look at a recent Which? survey with 5000 consumers in which Tesco Mobile was rated at 81% for satisfaction, in contrast to O2 at 67%. Even more telling is that Tesco Mobile, Asda Mobile, iD Mobile and Sky Mobile all score higher than their hosts. 

• Breadth of verticals: Growth comes from just about every vertical in the UK including sports brands, digital-first companies, utilities, financial services and retail. Success is not exclusive to consumer segments either, with plenty of buoyancy in the enterprise, IoT/ M2M arenas. All these verticals prove it’s possible to launch, refine, improve, and grow when you have the right mix of ingredients. 

Let’s not be naive to think every launch succeeds but when you understand the dynamics and lean into the market conditions to build the right proposition, service model and leadership team, then there is certainly every opportunity for a challenger vertical to succeed. 

The nine points above make the UK market the best to use as a test ground before moving into other markets around the world. I know because we’ve helped UK MVNOs take proven concepts worldwide.

Our team of UK and global experts help brands navigate market dynamics, launch and sustain brands in the UK and then take them to a global stage. Those brands might be in the UK, or on the other side of the world, but every single one is given the strategic advice they need to succeed here and stretch to other countries. 

So, no matter if you are a local or international brand pondering a UK / multi-market MVNO launch, then talk to us. We’ll help you design a strategy, from commercial deals to technical infrastructure, that delivers sustained results.  Want to find out more, book a call now.

p.s. Maybe that is the tenth reason why you should choose the UK market!

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From the explosive growth of travel eSIM services to retailers such as Lidl exploring the launch of up to 30 MVNOs across Europe with 1GLOBAL, and digital-first brands like Monzo and Klarna reportedly considering market entry, the future looks bright.

Latest market data reinforces the optimism. Prescient Strategic Insight predicts the global MVNO market will grow from a value of $92 billion today to $155 billion within the next three years. These figures highlight not only the scale of the opportunity but also the pace of innovation and entrepreneurial ambition that continues to drive the industry forward.

Regulators play a significant role

A significant factor behind this expansion is the role regulators are playing in fostering competition and encouraging innovation.

In developing telecommunications markets, where greater consumer choice is needed, regulators are increasingly issuing licences and mandating wholesale network access. 

These measures help create opportunities for new entrants while challenging incumbent operators to sharpen up their efforts and deliver better services, lower prices, and more innovation.

The same trend is evident in mature markets. As network operators continue to consolidate through mergers and acquisitions, regulators frequently look to MVNOs as a mechanism for preserving competition. 

Across several European markets, regulatory remedies have included mandatory MVNO access agreements and, in some cases, regulated wholesale commercial terms. Regulators understand that a well-executed challenger MVNO can transform market dynamics and deliver significant value to consumers.

A compelling example is Walmart’s Bait in Mexico. By leveraging its extensive retail footprint and integrating mobile services with customer loyalty programmes, incentives, and promotions, Bait has achieved an impressive 18% market share. Remarkably, it has surpassed two established mobile network operators in the process. This demonstrates the power of combining a strong brand, customer access, and a differentiated proposition.

Innovation is also emerging in other areas. Honest Mobile, for example, has addressed one of the most persistent frustrations faced by UK consumers: inconsistent network coverage. 

Its solution allows customers to access multiple networks through a single SIM, providing greater reliability and flexibility. It is a simple yet highly effective response to a real consumer problem.

Beyond consumer-focused offerings, there are numerous success stories in the enterprise sector. MVNOs are increasingly being developed to support innovations in IoT, connected devices, and wearable technology. These specialised providers demonstrate that MVNOs can take many forms, serving a wide range of customer needs and business models.

But what unites these success stories is a shared mindset. A belief that existing solutions can be improved. By identifying genuine market gaps and delivering something better, many MVNOs have managed to challenge incumbents and reshape customer expectations.

But you need more than a good idea to succeed

However, having a strong concept is only the beginning. While innovation is essential, it is far from the only ingredient required for success.

Launching an MVNO is a complex undertaking that involves significant commercial, operational, and technical challenges. Successful providers invest heavily in understanding customer behaviour, negotiating competitive wholesale agreements, and designing robust technical architectures capable of delivering on their promises. None of this happens by accident.

The challenges do not end once the service launches. Attracting customers and maintaining momentum in the market requires continuous effort. The idea that simply building a product guarantees customers will come is one of the biggest misconceptions in the industry. Successful MVNOs are restless when it comes to keeping their brand visible, relevant, and compelling.

Travel eSIM opens a new world of MVNO

One of the most exciting growth areas is undoubtedly the travel eSIM market.

Travel eSIM propositions are now being adopted across travel, transportation, retail, and fintech sectors. Their appeal is straightforward: they provide international travellers with simple, affordable connectivity while eliminating expensive roaming charges.

Consumers increasingly view connectivity as an essential travel product, purchased as easily as hire cars or sangria. Travellers actively compare providers and seek the best value, creating opportunities for brands that can deliver attractive, easy-to-understand offers.

The most successful propositions often combine connectivity with complementary travel services. Bundling eSIM packages with competitive foreign exchange rates, digital wallets, or airline bookings creates a seamless customer experience that adds genuine value.

Perhaps more importantly, travel eSIMs serve as an ideal gateway product. They offer new entrants a relatively low-risk route into the telecommunications market while solving a clearly defined customer pain point. 

Once a brand has established trust and demonstrated that customers are willing to buy connectivity services from them, it creates opportunities to expand into more sophisticated primary SIM offerings.

This phased approach enables brands to build customer relationships, refine their propositions, and gradually increase lifetime value. It is a model that we strongly advocate and one that many of our clients are successfully pursuing. 

Even traditional mobile network operators are increasingly investing in travel eSIM solutions, further highlighting the strategic importance of this segment.

Being a winner takes time and energy

For every successful MVNO, there are numerous examples of businesses that failed because they focused on the idea rather than the execution.

Success requires strategic clarity, dedicated resources, and expert guidance throughout the development process. The most important question any prospective MVNO must answer is simple: Why would customers choose our service?

The strongest MVNOs succeed because they solve a genuine customer problem and clearly communicate how their solution differs from existing alternatives.

At Graystone Strategy, we encourage new MVNOs to follow a five-part structured development journey that begins with customer needs and user experience. Without a deep understanding of customer motivations, there is no viable business case. It becomes impossible to accurately forecast costs, margins, growth potential, or operational requirements.

Equally important, operators are unlikely to engage in meaningful wholesale discussions if the strategic foundations are weak. Network operators receive countless partnership proposals, and only those supported by clear commercial logic and market demand stand out.

The subsequent stages we recommend focus on technical delivery and operational execution. While technology is often the most visible aspect of an MVNO launch, it should never overshadow the customer proposition. The best technical solutions are often those that create the simplest and most seamless user experiences.

Always be selling

Finally, long-term success depends on sustaining brand relevance and continuously acquiring customers. Too many businesses underestimate the ongoing investment required to market and grow their proposition. Building awareness and maintaining momentum should never be an afterthought.

This is where expert advice can make all the difference. If you believe you have identified a market opportunity, engage with industry specialists early. Validate the concept, build the business case, and refine the strategy before entering negotiations.

Better still, bring experienced advisors into wholesale discussions and contract negotiations. Their expertise can significantly accelerate the journey to market and improve commercial outcomes. In a sector growing as rapidly as MVNOs, that investment could ultimately determine whether you become part of the industry’s success story or simply another example of what happens when opportunity is not matched by execution.

Need help ensuring your idea doesn’t fade after launch? We can help, either with our detailed masterclasses on the steps you need to take, or by becoming an extension of your team, developing go-to-market strategy and proposition development. Find out more here

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No longer are we fixated on the opportunities for B2C that migrant markets, supermarkets and multi-play bring – though they do of course still bring a multitude of opportunities – instead attention is moving at speed to B2B and in particular IoT.

Gartner predict some 25 billion IoT device end points by the end of 2021It was already driven by everything from smart cities to our need to solve major agricultural problems like feeding the world’s population more efficiently, but Covid-19 has accelerated thinking and the necessity to implement solutions.

Those extraordinary predictions from Gartner are entirely possible when you look at the amount of investment going in and the urgency provoked by the pandemic. You just need to look at Vodafone’s repeated ambition to expand its narrowband IoT footprint in Europe to see how committed the big boys are.

With investment comes opportunity for growth and innovation. Small IoT specialists are springing up everywhere and fuelling the new ecosystem.

This all plays into the hands of MVNOs as nothing is possible without connectivity. And as mobile is at the forefront of this emerging world, so MVNOs can take full advantage in verticals that need mobile connectivity.

How so? Well, it’s due to the resilience and flexibility of the MVNO model.

Fact 1, MVNOs heritage of problem solving means that they can now deliver more rapidly: Typically MVNOs have had to work around network connectivity complexity. They’ve done this by developing in house systems for connecting services and SIMs. It’s made them faster and more flexible than the MNOs and it’s given them an added capability they can trade on.

This is especially true for full MVNOs, which have benefited from the flexibility that owning the HLR/HSS, IMSI and number ranges provides – by using multi IMSI solutions MVNOs can build a large geographical footprint and provide a seamless transition across borders. Throw in the emerging E-SIM capability and you have some exciting opportunities.

Cubic Telecom is a great example of this approach to sweating the assets. Originally a consumer roaming proposition it pivoted into IoT and connected vehicles, and with coverage in over 180 countries it’s easy to see why Volkswagon Audi Group made investments in Cubic – how else would 50,000 new connected vehicles roll off production each month? Last year Cubic made a bold 5G statement, securing a further $26.4m funding as part of its strategy to get ready for the technology.

Fact 2, the mindset is in IoT gear: The MVNO mindset is more entrepreneurial than the big networks’. An MVNO isn’t preoccupied with plastering its consumer brand all over the customer offer, nor do they entertain complex governance or have intragroup stakeholders to appease. This makes them inherently agile and quick to respond to the market. It puts them in a position whereby they can roll out a full service before you can say internet of things.

Interestingly, there’s a future case to say MVNOs don’t need to be virtual. They could get a slice of a 5G network and run it themselves, slicing it further to create private networks for major campus style operations like airports, or universities.

Fact 3, Enterprises like MVNOs: The companies buying IoT services like challengers. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. They get the model, they get the agility, and they want the benefits it brings like yesterday.

From their perspective a challenger MVNO brand is a perfect partner so long as they have a quality network behind them. Buyers are happy to trade speed to market and first mover advantage against partnering directly with a mobile network. And they get this because the challengers have more agile software development – the MNOs are improving but they still have a long way to go in terms of agile mindset and delivery. In the next 12 months we will see this outlook manifest further as robots are put to work on manufacturing production lines.

That’s why I think for Ofcom’s predictions of 160million IoT connections in the UK by 2024 are to play out it’s going to take MNVO / enterprise partnerships to make it happen.

And it’s why you can expect to hear everyone from platform vendors, analytics and data companies to MNVEs, Os and Xs talking it up at MVNO World Congress. It’s why I will be joining.

The post IoT and MVNOs – Three reasons why it’s fair game for MVNOs appeared first on Graystone Strategy.

Recent months have been about survival of the fittest. And while change is an accepted part of doing business, plans really have been turned upside down as the economy tanked, uncertainty dug in, and an ever changing set of rules came from the government.

This kind of change means that today’s issues, (which could quite literally have become very different to yesterday’s and are likely to be different again to tomorrow’s), become the talking point at the boardroom table. The long-term plan gets shoved aside.

It’s a really common behaviour at the moment. The ‘Covid effect’ boils down to obsessing on the here and now and not adjusting at the detriment of the long term strategic plans. Decisions are deferred, expenditure is questioned, cuts are made.

But as history can tell us, fortune favours the brave.

So, it’s no surprise then that despite the question mark over 5G’s relevance, Vodafone is still forecasting a big upside to 5G. True enough the cynical can say Vodafone has a vested interest in making 5G happen, but its whole approach to the pandemic has been one of accepting its role as a critical service provider and stepping up. It’s seen and helped demonstrate the bigger picture and provided the technology solutions and support to boot.

The alternative approach, which we’ve also seen in the industry, is to entrench. Reduce marketing expenditure. Furlough staff. Reduce service levels.

Setting aside the retail hardships, in an industry like telecoms such an approach can only lead to more misery – ultimately you lose momentum and catching up becomes much more challenging.

It’s a two-fold approach that’s needed: 1. Now, 2: next year. There’s an immediate need to look at the services 5G can help companies innovate and deliver tomorrow and react to what customers want now. As Peter Scott illustrates in this piece in The Daily Telegraph, understanding your service model and how people want to shop and buy a product can differentiate a brand.

If you can put someone in touch with an expert in a store by video you are helping them make better use of their time and feel secure about the choices they make and the brands they gravitate to. Your assistants are less exposed to risk and can do what they do best: explain and demonstrate the latest washing machine or smart speaker and close a sale.

But for me it’s not just about the technology, it’s about the attitude towards longer term planning. Now is the time for boards in retail, travel and utilities in particular to review their five year plan, use the intel they have gathered over the last few months, think about their customer segments again and, if necessary, alter course, make new investments and keep moving forward towards the vision.

We are still very much in the throes of a marathon when it comes to managing the pandemic. I’d therefore argue that 5G and the assorted technologies it supports, like AI, AR and VR, and M2M IoT, can help long-term recovery in so many ways. It shouldn’t be dismissed.

There’s much to gain from investing in this vision – more accurate billing, more varied and personalised entertainment and subscription services, smarter city living and travel options. The operators are starting to bring to life the possibilities and show how investment can deliver ROI quickly. Investing in collaborative trials and pilots is a definite option for the execs who are brave.

Yes, there are definite use cases to deliver today – there’s the urgent use case for temperature monitoring at tickets turnstiles and access gates for instance. But there’s also the longer-term vision for using 5G to enable IoT that can help with things that have hit the public’s conscience since lockdown, such as managing food security and supply chains, to greener living and everything in between. It’s a perfect PR opportunity to strike now.

To sum up, I would see it as an opportunity that only 5% of companies think 5G is more important and relevant in a CV-19 world. Those 5% are the brands that can see its potential and are the ones to watch. They are already rethinking their strategy and making the link between innovation and recovery. And I believe that it’s those companies that will become even more relevant to people and help them live better connected lives. And what’s more they will be the businesses that swerve becoming another casualty in the long-run.

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But joking aside, the agenda is an indicator as to how much the MVNO market has matured and how bright its future is. It all underlines how exciting the industry is and if I’m honest why I love it so much. The themes associated to these topics, especially those related to new technologies, reflect changing times.

No longer are we fixated on the opportunities for B2C that migrant markets, supermarkets and multi-play bring – though they do of course still bring a multitude of opportunities – instead attention is moving at speed to B2Band in particular IoT.

Gartner predicts some 8.4 billion IoT devices will be in existence come 2020. It’s driven by everything from smart cities to our need to solve major agricultural problems like feeding the world’s population more efficiently.

Those extraordinary predictions from Gartner are entirely possible when you look at the amount of investment going in. You just need to look at Vodafone’s ambition to double its narrowband IoT footprint in Europe by 2019 to see how committed the big boys are.

With investment comes opportunity for growth and innovation. Small IoT specialists are springing up everywhere and fuelling the new ecosystem.

This all plays into the hands of MVNOs as nothing is possible without connectivity. And as mobile is at the forefront of this emerging world, so MVNOs can take full advantage in verticals that need mobile connectivity.

How so? Well, it’s due to the resilience and flexibility of the MVNO model.

Fact 1, MVNOs heritage of problem solving means that they can now deliver more rapidly:Typically MVNOs have had to work around network connectivity complexity. They’ve done this by developing in house systems for connecting services and SIMs. It’s made them faster and more flexible than the MNOs and it’s given them an added capability they can trade on.

This is especially true for full MVNOs, which have benefited from the flexibility that owning the HLR/HSS, IMSI and number ranges provides – by using multi IMSI solutions MVNOs can build a large geographical footprint and provide a seamless transition across borders.

Cubic Telecom is a great example of this approach to sweating the assets. Originally a consumer roaming proposition it now has over 200 3G roaming and 60 LTE (4G) agreements in place. This is one of the reasons why Volkswagon Audi Group has made investments in Cubic. How else would 50,000 new connected vehicles roll off production each month?

Fact 2, the mindset is in IoT gear:The MVNO mindset is more entrepreneurial than the big networks’. An MVNO isn’t preoccupied with plastering its consumer brand all over the customer offer, nor do they entertain complex governance or have intragroup stakeholders to appease. This makes them inherently agile and quick to respond to the market. It puts them in a position whereby they can roll out a full service before you can say internet of things.

Fact 3, Enterprises like MVNOs:The companies buying IoT services like challengers. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. They get the model, they get the agility, and they want the benefits it brings like yesterday.

From their perspective a challenger MVNO brand is a perfect partner so long as they have a quality network behind them. Buyers are happy to trade speed to market and first mover advantage against partnering with a mobile network. And they get this because the challengers have more agile software development – the MNOs are improving but they still have a long way to go in terms of agile mindset and delivery.

That’s why I think if Ofcom’s predictions of 160million IoT connections in the UK by 2024 are to play out then it’s going to take MNVO / enterprise partnerships to make it happen.

And it’s why you can expect to hear everyone from platform vendors, analytics and data companies to MNVEs, Os and Xs talking it up at MVNO Europe. I know it’s why I will be there, never mind the chance of a full house in Buzz word bingo…

The post Three facts that make MVNOs right for IoT – a look ahead to MVNO Europe (and a game of Buzz word Bingo) appeared first on Graystone Strategy.

But does that matter if there is likely to be pent up demand? That’s if you believe Nokia Bell Labs’ forecasts that global data demand is going to increase by 30-45 times on mobile devices by 2020?

What we do know is that 5G is going to radically transform mobile data speeds. And it is fast, no doubt about that. The University of Surrey, which is at the forefront of developing and understanding this technology, has achieved data speeds of 1Tera byte per second. Although that is in somewhat theoretical lab conditions it doesn’t take much imagination to see the potential.

In fact, you don’t even need to use your imagination. Look to Japan and NTT DoCoMo and you’ll find 3.6 Gbps in field tests. That’s about 12 times the current speeds 4G users enjoy in the UK. It really is amazing.

But if you start to peer through the smog of geeky excitement and look at all the insight related to how consumers are using 4G you start to wonder whether we really need that extra speed and if it will actually be that appealing to consumers. Is 5G really going to make a difference?

It’s not like we haven’t been here before. Back in 2012 all the hype was about 4G and how the speed would allow incredible changes in consumer behaviour, from high-speed mobile gaming to mass market streaming services.

The hype translated into UK networks spending £2.34bn on licensing new spectrum to make 4G services a reality and as we stand, based upon OFCOM’s figures (which are slightly inflated as they look at 4G price plans rather than 4G use), 46% of adults have access to a 4G plan.

That’s 39.5million consumers. Or to put it another way that’s a £60 investment per user to ensure they can watch Breaking Bad on the bus. And let’s face it, the entire mobile population won’t be doing that, and we know they’re not, despite the millions being pumped into advertising.

You have to question then the return on investment that 4G is delivering let alone what 5G will bring. The average revenue per user (ARPU) continues to fall to the extent that it dropped by 8% after the launch of 4G, and although there were many factors at play, the consumer behaviours tend to suggest that customers don’t like to use mobile for services that need high speed data, either because of the quality or the cost concerns.

That’s not a surprise. The panic we seen in people’s eyes when they don’t have access to “free” wifi is the evidence. It’s a simple fact that today the vast majority of data consumption on a mobile actually occurs on wifi. And if you needed numbers to prove it Anlysys Mason’s recent smartphone report showed that just 19% of mobile data traffic is handled by the mobile network. A stark reality for operators.

Compared to 4G, wifi is everywhere and for the majority of high bandwidth data activity consumers are choosing to use a fast, high quality reliable and often free wifi network rather than wait for mobile coverage. Plus of course many of the activities we do on our smartphones are undertaken in the home.

So what about high data consumption activities such as streaming music or watching Netflicks on the go? The sort of thing you can only do with a high speed and widely available mobile data network.

The truth is that these have not yet really achieved mass-market appeal. Music streaming services is used by around 19% of people and combined audio and video services are used by around 38%. True they are growing but does it justify additional investment in a newer, faster network allowing HD or 3D on your mobile screen if we’re not yet achieving levels near to 80% for what we already have?

So what’s the barrier? Very simply it’s coverage.

And this is my fundamental challenge with 5G.

The most popular web related activities on mobile phones are still relatively data light services such as messaging, accessing social media and general web browsing, all of which can be carried out quite adequately on a 3G signal which is ubiquitous compared to 4G, which even in urban areas can be a bit elusive.

Although 71% of UK premises have access to 4G services from all networks, there is still a dramatic digital divide between rural and urban areas. If you live in the country that number drops to just 21%.

So would the networks be better to invest in improved coverage for 4G and sweat their £2.34 billion existing investment a bit harder, rather than investing further in high-speed urban coverage that will give marginal improvements for a limited number of consumers?

Well here’s the thing. Although 5G will bring enhanced speed and reduced latency for mobile users, allowing you to download a box set of Game of Thrones in seconds, the real business case is built around the internet of things.

Gartner have predicted that by 2020 (that magic date again) there will be 20.8 billion connected devices. Currently it’s estimated that there are 6.4 billion. To put those numbers in context the World’s Population in 2016 was estimated at 7.4billion.

Each one of those devices will be sending data and, depending on the applications, that data has to be sent and received with no latency. The whole premise of smart cities falls over if there’s any delay.

If 5G can guarantee coast-to-coast coverage then we could well see our driverless cars being controlled by 5G networks, able to make amendments and corrections in milliseconds due to a secure and redundant super high-speed data network.

Qualcomm have even suggested that remote operations and surgical procedures could be undertaken using 5G networks communicating with machines and artificial intelligence.

There is no reason why these predictions shouldn’t happen but I suspect initially the reality will be a bit more mundane than this. It’s far more likely that it will be a radio chip communicating the whereabouts of my parcel via 5G rather than a postal drone delivering it controlled by the 5G network.

But however simple or sophisticated the idea, it’s IOT applications that are more likely to drive networks to develop 5G then consumer demands for faster data.

The networks will be reviewing 5G through the broader lens of their IOT strategy, assessing, how they can monetise what will be another extremely significant technology and claw back the spectrum investment versus the exciting services that IOT will enable.

But importantly the value in IOT services is wrapped into the whole service, not just the communication layer, so networks’ strategies are likely to focus on finding the right B2B partnerships and providing the level of ubiquity and security that the consumer services will demand.

Ultimately the consumer is buying into a connected house experience or an autonomous vehicle taxi journey, not a 5G mobile network with superfast data. They will simply want to know that it will work when they want it to.

This comes down to a marketing gamble. Selling the dream of a smart life and telling the story of the way it will transform how we work and play. Those operators that win will leave behind the story of 5G. It will be the hygiene factor and irrelevant. It will only become a deal breaker when it doesn’t work.

Any IoT developer or integrator will get this, and will want to partner with networks that do too. Consumers will be left puzzled as to whether they need another G in their life if the message is technology lead.

And rightly so, because for the vast majority 5G won’t be relevant. Only when the majority of the population embarks on the journey of connected cities, with autonomous vehicles and AI doctors will it be.

Then it will be the businesses providing those IoT services that will drive network performance. For them it will be about brand reputation and an implicit requirement that 5G must be everywhere to fulfill their end of the bargain. And who knows, by the time we cross the threshold of mass adoption, they may even be pushing for 6G.

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